Spot prices: Record wind power in December and a steadily improving hydro balance led to lower spot prices. According to preliminary figures, around 35% of electricity generation in December came from hydropower, while around 35% came from wind and 27% came from nuclear. This is the fifth month in which wind power has accounted for a larger share of total electricity generation than nuclear power over the whole month. Over the past twelve months, wind power production has increased compared with the previous year by around 18%. For a couple of days at the beginning of December, electricity prices soared in southern Sweden. A few individual hours even on par with prices at the level of the worst hours in 2022. But seen over the whole month, prices are not exceptional in southern Sweden. In SE4, the spot price was EUR 60.16/MWh, while SE2 received EUR 9.74/MWh. The monthly price in SE3 also fell in December to EUR 50.54/MWh compared with EUR 57.76/MWh the month before.

Power Futures: Nordic electricity futures had a weak development in December. The front quarter Q1-25 closed at SEK 543.48/MWh (-79.07). Year 2025 closed at SEK 373.67/MWh (-55.02). The market was characterised by mild weather and increased hydrological balance, and falling gas prices with rapidly declining gas stocks in Europe.

Weather and hydrology: December 2024 was much milder than normal, not like previous years but more in line with the December months of 2019 and 2020. Active low pressure traffic on the Atlantic and a westerly flow dominated. The active low pressure traffic from the Atlantic via the Norwegian Sea contributed to several episodes of very windy weather, especially in the second half of the month. The hydrological balance improved by about +9 TWh during the month and reached almost +19 TWh at the end of the year. December 2024 ended up being just over 2°C milder than normal. During the first half of the month, it was normal to slightly colder in southern Sweden, while in the north it was mostly mild. After the middle of the month, the weather turned mild in the south while it became progressively colder in the north. The mildest day was Boxing Day 26/12 when it was 7.5°C, i.e. 5.4°C above normal.

Ancillary services: The prices of the ancillary services FCR continue to fall. FCR N remains the highest with an average price of 23.46 EUR/MW while both FCR D UP and especially FCR D DOWN continue to fall when we have plenty of hydropower and more batteries and wind have been pre-qualified. They ended December at EUR 4.35 and EUR 3.20/MW respectively. M FRR and the regulating price have been lower than spot on average in SE2, otherwise in other price areas higher than the spot price on average. The highest price was just under 660 EUR, which was about half of the maximum in November. At its lowest, it reached about -12.65 EUR/MWh.

EUA: After falling in the first half of December, emission allowances rose in the second half of the month and the Dec-25 contract closed at 73.0 EUR/t (+2.51). There has been a continued upward trend during the month with financial players' positions remaining long and gas prices rising. With long holidays during the month and few auctions, demand has increased for emission allowances.

Gas market: Prices in the gas market declined in the first half of December, thanks to milder weather forecasts and reduced long positions in the market. Subsequently, forecasts turned colder and the likelihood of no solution to the agreement on the transport of Russian gas through Ukraine increased, leading to further price increases. The monthly price trend was therefore more or less sideways. LNG imports increased during the month, while the utilisation rate decreased to 68.6% (-14.8).

Guarantees of origin: Prices for guarantees of origin moved basically sideways in December, with Vatten 2024 closing at EUR 0.40 (+0.01) while the contract for 2025 closed at EUR 1.06 (-0.04). The supply situation continues to look good, but at the same time prices are around 3-year lows, which has attracted some buying interest.