Spot prices: The Nordic system spot price rose in November. The average price for the month was SEK 431.82/MWh (+158.45). Wind power delivered about 10% more than normal in Sweden, and total wind generation totalled 4,500 GWh, which was the largest total generation for a November month ever. It was the first full month with the new flow-based capacity calculation, which according to SvK affects the electricity price on the margin, but exactly how it affects is difficult to say, they add.In SE1, the average spot price was 249.58 SEK/MWh (+123.58), and in SE2 the average for the month was 180.94 SEK/MWh (+45.75). In SE3 the price was 669.52 SEK/MWh (+439.79). Finally, SE4 ended up at 846.46 SEK/MWh (+544.93).

Power Futures: Nordic power futures had a mixed development in November. The front quarter Q1-25 closed at 622.55 SEK/MWh (+8.35). 2025 closed at 428.69 SEK/MWh (-8.70). The market was characterised by mild weather for the season with an occasional cold snap and rising gas prices with rapidly declining gas stocks in Europe.

Weather and hydrology: Predominantly mild and normal precipitation energy in November but more wind in the Nordic countries and less in Germany created volatility and large price area differences, which according to SvK would have been worse without Flow-Based. Predominantly mild and normal energy weather in November with a cooler week(47) or a few days between the predominantly mild scenario that gave an average of about one degree (+0.8 ° C) surplus during the month in Sweden. The Nordic region as a whole ended up with a surplus of about +0.7°C in the consumption area.
The hydro balance strengthened and is in surplus by 5 TWh.

Other supply and demand: According to the preliminary figures, about 38% of total electricity production in November came from hydropower, while about 31% came from wind and only 28% came from nuclear power, which had a peak availability of 88% during the month, with Forsmark 3 still in extension until the end of January and Olkiluoto 2+3 still reduced. In the past, it has happened just three months before November that wind power has accounted for a larger share of production than nuclear power has delivered in a month. In November, Sweden imported more electricity than it exported in only 4 of all 720 hours.

Emission allowances: The price of emission allowances rose during November, with the Dec-24 contract closing at EUR 68.39/t (+4.69). There has been a clear upward trend during the month, with financial participants' short position moving to a long position. The marginal price of producing electricity with gas has continued to rise more than the marginal price of producing electricity with coal, which has increased demand.

The coal market: Coal prices moved sideways during the month despite a sharp rise in gas prices. Continued weak demand for coal from China is counteracting the price movement on the gas market. The closing price for the year 2026 (API2) was USD 122.5/tonne (-0.58) at the end of November.

The gas market: The month was characterised by rising prices on the gas market, and the December TTF futures contract closed the month at EUR 46.7/MWh (+5.8). The rise was partly due to concerns about Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine from the start of the year, where no new agreement seems to be on the table, but also to low winds and cold weather with reduced stock levels as a consequence. LNG imports increased compared to October, but the level was clearly lower than in November last year. Gas stock levels in Northwest Europe fell to 83.7% (-11.0) during the month. The market was given a brief respite in the heated situation associated with the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel at the end of the month. With prices high, LNG imports look set to increase in December, but cold and windless weather forecasts at the beginning of the month look set to weaken fundamentals, which should support further price increases initially.

Guarantees of origin: Guarantees of origin prices had a mixed performance in November, with 2024 contracts closing at EUR 0.39 (0) while 2025 contracts closed at EUR 1.1 (+0.25). The supply situation continues to look good but at the same time prices are at 3-year lows, which has attracted some buyers.